Notes on ARK's In the Know (Episode 10)
Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCBUhQ6jJoM
- Monetary policy
- M2 up 25% YoY, velocity of money is falling
- Two reasons why velocity might stop, and becomes overdrive
- (Good reason) Confidence in economy (business and consumers) are rising very high, not all time high yet
- (Not a good reason) When inflation and interest rate goes up, velocity of money can go up too; we don’t think about inflation will be a problem
- Two reasons why velocity might stop, and becomes overdrive
- M2 up 25% YoY, velocity of money is falling
- Fiscal policy
- Fiscal policy package will occur
- Election
- Some degree of gridlock situation
- The republican will hold majority in senate
- In the house more republicans have won than anticipated
- Republicans might bring along some democrats to their view
- A little better than gridlock in policy making
- Still more conservative than expected
- Some degree of gridlock situation
- Economy
- Inventory starts building again
- Expect an extremely strong holiday season
- JPM credit card payment +15% YoY on Black Friday long weekend
- S&P 500 average for September +9%
- Retail usually follows
- 12/4 Employment report
- Weaker than expected
- Household employment was down
- Tech is flat, maybe due to productivity improvement
- Significant drop in manufacture
- Can be explained by inventory going up
- Average week earnings YoY Growth rate accelerated
- Saving rate dropped but is still high by historical standards
- Durable goods report reinforces surging of capital spending
- Market
- Copper broke out relative to gold
- Market cycle signals
- 10 year treasury bonds rate might increase
- Would hurt fixed income investors
- Not problematic for equity investors
- Shift from fixed income to equity is still long overdue
- Continued outflows of equity, inflows of fixed income, $1.2T difference in between
- A signal of no bubble in equity
- Until a shifting of flows between fixed income and equity
- Individual investors (AAII) indexes are very high
- Maybe a signal of some sort of correction
- Copper broke out relative to gold
本作品采用知识共享署名-非商业性使用 3.0 版本许可协议进行许可,欢迎转载,演绎,但是必须保留本文的署名 zellux(包含链接),且不得用于商业目的。